The diversity of climate models is the reason why the results of long-term climate change predictions are very different from each other. Some models predict a warming of only a few degrees, others are much more radical. People often point to more modest models, saying that the climate is not so bad. But, alas, researchers at the Carnegie Institution have found out that the most accurate models are those that are the most severe.
In a new study published in the international journal of science Nature, scientists have received data from satellites in recent decades with different climatic models.
In particular, this data included the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, and the amount of energy. Then the scientists analysed the climatic models to see which of them most accurately predicted the real state of things.
The scientists found that the most accurate were the models that predict the highest level of warming by the beginning of the next century.
According to the article, with a probability of 93%, the temperature will increase by the end of the century from the middle of the 19th century. In previous studies, this probability was estimated at 62%.
“Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated”, – Nature.